Opinion / Megan Gibson
Popular vote
Over the past few years, political headline writers have had a pretty easy job. Desperate to attract eyeballs and impressions (and keen to draw easy conclusions), their leading line on coverage of elections big and small seems to go one of two ways. Either a populist candidate seizes a victory, prompting soul-searching among the establishment on how they’ve lost touch, or the populist candidate is roundly defeated, meaning that voters have rejected their message once and for all.
Then along comes an election, such as France’s regional vote on Sunday, that throws a wrench into the works and disrupts the neat narratives. The vote in Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur was widely touted as a showdown between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen’s (pictured) far-right Rassemblement National, but their respective parties had disappointing results in the first round of voting. While Le Pen’s populist push fell far short of predictions with 19.3 per cent of the vote, Macron’s La République En Marche flopped with just 11.2 per cent. The party that found the most success is the right-of-centre Les Republicains, which unexpectedly took the lead with 27.2 per cent of the vote.
The press, and indeed the parties themselves, are still keen to draw grand conclusions about what this means for populism in France ahead of next year’s presidential election. (Though, of course, remember that the second round of voting in the regional elections is yet to take place; that happens on 27 June.) But what the endless “either/or” analysis ignores is that the political landscape is actually a lot more, well, stable. Populist parties aren’t likely to obliterate establishment ones entirely; neither are they going anywhere. Instead, parties such as Le Pen’s are likely to be a reliable fixture in European politics for the foreseeable future and their ability to sway voters will ebb and flow. That’s not to say that there are no lessons to be learned from elections – rather that they’re often more nuanced than can be explained in a snappy take. What’s more, every time the media treats an election like a make-or-break referendum on populism’s future, these lessons are ignored.