Opinion / Benno Zogg
Border disorder
Ever since the mass protests against Belarus’s stolen election a year ago, and the ensuing state violence, the country has regularly made headlines and a series of escalating diplomatic incidents has kept security analysts such as myself very busy. But this year the authoritarian regime of Alexander Lukashenko (pictured) has taken the national crisis to a new international level by weaponising migration. Prior to Iraqi Airways’ suspension of all flights to Minsk last week, the city’s airport had been receiving several weekly flights from Iraq. Recently, hundreds of Iraqi migrants and refugees have been intercepted by Lithuanian guards at the border. Lukashenko is accused of facilitating the flow of Iraqi migrants into an EU member state as a means to negotiate sanctions relief from the West.
In Belarus the summer has been calm, at least on the surface. There have been no street protests; people appear to be going about their lives, while Minsk’s restaurants and bars are packed. Yet there is a tension in the atmosphere that is different to what I’ve sensed on my previous visits to the city. Frustration and resignation are widespread as the regime has intensified its crackdown on civil society. A few weeks ago more than 50 NGOs were banned in the country. Meanwhile, most Belarusians expect nothing from the constitutional reforms that Lukashenko has promised; it’s hard to believe that he would relinquish power and pave the way for genuine pluralism.
Many Belarusians have all but lost hope of change and see little prospect of a democratic future. I have met many who are keen to emigrate but even this has become more difficult. Belarus has closed almost all of its land border, while its neighbours are fortifying their sides of it in response to the manufactured influx of refugees. Most flight routes into and out of Belarus have been cancelled, following the Western sanctions imposed after the Ryanair aircraft-hijacking incident in May. One can only hope that this cycle of escalation, sanctions and counter-sanctions finds an end – for the sake of Belarusians and the migrants caught in the crossfire.
Benno Zogg is Monocle’s security correspondent, based in Zürich. He visited Minsk last week.