Opinion / Mary Fitzgerald
Causes célèbres
The first round of France’s presidential election is just under two months away but you’d hardly know it in the country’s south. On a recent trip from Marseille to Nice, I saw few election posters and only one candidate on the campaign trail: Marine Le Pen of the far-right Rassemblement National (RN), the party formerly known as the National Front.
With polls suggesting that Le Pen (pictured) could face incumbent Emmanuel Macron in a second-round run-off, as she did in 2017, she appeared confident when we met in Toulon, the third-largest city in a region that has long been an RN stronghold. I asked her whether she feared Éric Zemmour, the far-right provocateur and TV pundit with several convictions for inciting racial hatred who is courting her base. She laughed it off. But later that day, in front of hundreds in the town of Vallauris, Le Pen gave a speech that was mostly a hardline rant against immigration. Though few think that Zemmour stands a chance in this election, his rhetoric is clearly shaping the wider conversation.
Even Valérie Pécresse of the conservative Les Républicains party borrowed from Zemmour’s messaging in her first major speech this week. To the surprise of many, Pécresse referred to the “great replacement”: a conspiracy theory key to Zemmour’s campaign claiming that a white Christian majority in France is being “replaced” by non-white migrants. It portends a bleak campaign season and one that many here have little appetite for: several people I met said that they were either not going to vote at all or cast un vote blanc (a blank vote). France’s abstention rate, which has been rising in recent years, is yet another unpredictable factor in what is expected to be a volatile ballot.
Fitzgerald is a Monocle correspondent based in Marseille.