Opinion / David Hodari
No pain, no gain
Businesses across Europe and North America are feeling the squeeze: supply-chain disruptions, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the relaxation of pandemic restrictions mean that demand for goods and services is rising faster than their supply.
Signs of inflation are popping up like a rash: consumer products behemoth Unilever said last week that it raised its prices by 8 per cent in the first three months of the year due to inflation. Germany has also dropped its opposition to an EU embargo on Russian oil, meaning that energy prices for Europeans will rise even further. The World Bank and the IMF predict that prices will continue to rise globally in the coming months.
Against this backdrop, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England will do their best to ease these pressures without sparking a recession when they make their monthly interest-rate decisions this week. Some economists contend that central banks should focus on softening the effect of inflation, which is a certainty, rather than preventing a recession – that, for the moment at least, is only a possibility. Therefore the Fed and the Bank of England will raise interest rates further in the hope that businesses and consumers will cut back on spending – and by extension stop the prices of goods from increasing.
This leaves companies caught between a rock and a hard place. Deutsche Bank’s senior economist Sanjay Raja highlights the gloom hanging over entrepreneurs. “Consumer confidence has already tanked to recessionary levels and business confidence is slowly – but surely – softening in the middle of rising cost pressures,” he says. For businesses, small and large, it looks as though more pain is on the horizon.