Opinion / Christopher Cermak
Fork in the road
The night before Barack Obama ordered the raid on Osama bin Laden in 2011, he appeared relaxed at the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner in Washington. He used his speech to excoriate (in comical fashion) one particular member of the audience, Donald Trump. Just days earlier, Trump’s questioning of Obama’s nationality had forced the latter to release the long-form version of his birth certificate.
That one extraordinary week in US politics arguably set Obama on a path to winning a second term as president – his decision to order the strike on Bin Laden (pictured) saw his approval rating surge from 46 per cent to 57 per cent. Meanwhile, many media outlets have speculated that the humiliating dinner prompted Trump to seriously consider a presidential run of his own (Trump, for his part, denies those rumours).
Shades of Obama’s fateful week are apparent in Washington today. On Monday night, Joe Biden, who was famously sceptical of Obama’s raid on Bin Laden, announced the killing of Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri. While he won’t get the same bounce in the polls as Obama, the raid could allay some fears that Biden took his eye off threats to the US when he pulled troops out of Afghanistan last year.
Biden also faces a make-or-break week in Congress. Democrats are trying to pass a seminal piece of legislation – the Inflation Reduction Act – that would include the largest ever investment in tackling climate change, offset by a new minimum 15 per cent corporate tax. Meanwhile, Republicans are spending this week pushing anti-abortion referenda and voting in state primaries on whether relative moderates or Trump-supporting election deniers should represent them in November’s midterm polls. It’s never easy to pinpoint moments when momentum shifts but if Biden decides to run for a second term in 2024, this could be the week that sets him on a path to victory – or defeat.
Christopher Cermak is Monocle’s news editor.