Opinion / Ed Stocker
Hard turn
In the end, there were no major surprises in Italy’s general election – even if the political implications of a sharp turn to the right are continuing to reverberate across Europe. As predicted, Giorgia Meloni’s far-right Fratelli d’Italia is now the most popular party in the country after winning 26 per cent of the vote in Sunday’s election. Although the nation’s weary president, Sergio Mattarella, still has to formally agree, it seems likely that Meloni will be Italy’s new prime minister as part of a coalition with the equally hard-right Lega and the centre-right Forza Italia, overseen by an 85-year-old Silvio Berlusconi. Together, they easily defeated the centre and left that had been unable to form viable coalitions.
Despite bureaucratic difficulties, such as having to vote in the place where you’re an official resident (rather than where you necessarily live) and a mind-bogglingly confusing voting system that mixes first-past-the-post and proportional representation, Italians have always gone to the ballot box in high numbers. This time around, turnout reached a historic low of 64 per cent, down by 9 per cent on 2018, which is perhaps a sign of voter fatigue in what has been a lacklustre campaign over the summer and early autumn. After the failures of largely left-leaning coalitions to deal with issues such as stagnant wages and creaking infrastructure, many will have voted for Meloni (pictured) out of protest or thinking that she is somehow an “outsider” alternative.
Much has been written about Fratelli d’Italia’s post-fascist roots and Meloni’s hard stance on immigration. In recent weeks she has tried to strike a more conciliatory tone but one mustn’t forget that this is the same person who has wagged her finger against the “LGBT lobby” at rallies and is an open admirer of Viktor Orbán. If she becomes prime minister, it’s hard to know exactly what sort of person will show up to work – and how much the weight of office could change her. Will this be a new era of culture wars in Italy as access to abortion becomes harder and a zero-tolerance policy towards irregular immigration is enforced? Or will the pragmatism of needing EU recovery-fund money, which Meloni has said she wants to partially renegotiate, prevail? Let’s hope it’s the latter.
Ed Stocker is Monocle’s Europe editor at large, based in Milan.