Opinion / Christopher Cermak
Fractured states
Europeans often look at moments of dysfunction in US politics, such as the past week’s onerous attempts to elect a new speaker of the House of Representatives, and ask me a simple question: why this fealty to the two-party system? With Friday marking two years since the 6 January attack on the US Capitol and Republican lawmakers nearly coming to blows before finally settling on a speaker of the House of Representatives that question is back: why hasn’t the Republican party broken up?
New parties are often how the European system renews itself: Emmanuel Macron split from France’s Socialist Party and led his own outfit to power instead. But Americans typically remake parties from within. Donald Trump’s Republicans are an entirely different breed to those of George W Bush. But there is a precedent for European-style renewal, albeit not a recent one. In the 1840s the once-dominant Whig party broke into pieces, largely due to intense intra-party bickering over slavery. Out of the ashes emerged the anti-slavery Republican party and its first elected president, Abraham Lincoln.
Might modern-day Republicans go the way of the Whigs? The historians who I’ve spoken to say that the present situation doesn’t quite match what happened then. For one thing, the Republican party was founded at a time when the two-party system was less established. For another, slavery was such a major issue that it couldn’t have been changed from within; opposing it necessitated its own movement. By contrast, a Republican break-up today would be political suicide, splitting the conservative vote over squabbles far less significant than slavery. That’s why the party was forced to reach a deal that gives more power to its extreme wing instead of, say, expelling the 20 radical lawmakers who sought to prevent Kevin McCarthy from becoming speaker.
If there is a positive in the disunity, it’s that Republicans are finally having an honest, transparent discussion about the party’s members and what they stand for. Maybe it will renew itself yet. And if not? History shows that, even in the US, obstinate political parties can’t last forever.
Christopher Cermak is Monocle’s Washington correspondent.