Opinion / Christopher Cermak
Taking sides
Over the past year, I’ve had more than one argument with people who have backed Russia’s desire to keep Ukraine in its sphere of influence or blamed Nato for expanding after the Cold War. My answer has been simple: whatever the geopolitical context, none of it justifies the brutal invasion of an independent nation and the slaughter of innocent civilians. Perhaps that’s why, of all the US coverage coinciding with the war’s anniversary, I was struck most by an article in The Washington Post about the evolving views of the Global South, where nations are siding with Russia thanks to economic and historic ties or because of the West’s history of colonialism and invasion.
Of Russia’s allies, China is the most complex. The US warns that China might provide lethal arms to Russia, which would prolong this war exponentially. It could also turn the tide. However much Joe Biden claims to be in this for the long haul, Vladimir Putin has a good chance of outlasting the democratic West with the military backing of another authoritarian power such as China.
That leaves the US with an extremely delicate balancing act. The Biden administration needs to convince Xi Jinping (pictured) that arming Russia is a lost cause – that it’s not worth risking further isolation. However, that would only work if Beijing believes that its relations with the West aren’t already a lost cause. This becomes less likely when rhetoric against Beijing is overblown and Nato shifts its focus to China.
There is a real geopolitical threat from Beijing that needs to be dealt with. But Xi Jinping isn’t Vladimir Putin – not yet, anyway – and using Nato to confront China only plays into Moscow’s narrative. Lumping these two nations together creates more trouble than it’s worth. And it could leave the people of Ukraine caught in the crossfire for far longer.
Christopher Cermak is Monocle’s Washington correspondent. For more opinion, analysis and insight, subscribe to Monocle today.