Opinion / Alexis Self
Uneasy alliance
As the foreign ministers of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) – an alliance of eight countries, led by China and Russia, that is soon to include Iran – meet in Goa today to shore up ties, it’s easy to be apprehensive about the future of global geopolitics. Defensive and economic co-operation between the perpetrators of heinous crimes in Ukraine, Xinjiang and Iran would seem to signal a new era of Cold War-style realignment, in which two diametrically opposite blocs – the SCO and the West – vie for world supremacy.
With the benefit of hindsight, it is clear that the 14 years of rules-based international relations between 1989 and 2003 were an exception rather than the norm. The important thing now is to prevent the solidifying of two distinct adversarial alliances that could grow further and further apart until their opposition becomes confrontational. In this regard, countries such as India (an SCO member) and Turkey (a Nato member and SCO dialogue partner) are crucial. Both should be offered the opportunity for greater co-operation with – and integration within – alliances such as Nato and the EU, while also being encouraged to maintain relations with Beijing and even Moscow.
Dictatorial regimes are dependent on the whims (and lifespans) of their rulers. Democratic nations, whose leaders must consider the opinions of their own citizens, should be frank about their responsibilities to safeguarding others. Preventing the enlargement in size and influence of the SCO is only possible through such accountability. If countries such as India and Turkey are not kept on side – and the SCO becomes a military alliance – a multipolar world risks becoming a bipolar one, which is just what Cold War nostalgists such as Vladimir Putin desire.
Alexis Self is Monocle’s foreign editor. For more opinion, analysis and insight, subscribe to Monocle today.