Opinion / James Chambers
Hanging in the balance
Experts on the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) sometimes split the 10-member bloc into two subgroups: the mostly democratic “maritime” countries of Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei and the Philippines, and the authoritarian “mainland” quintet of Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam. Admittedly, it’s imperfect. Brunei, an absolute monarchy with no elected representatives at the national level, is clearly in the wrong place and Vietnam has a huge fishing fleet. But the diverging positions taken by these two groups on major issues, such as the crisis in Myanmar, help to explain why Asean has had such a hard time getting anything done. As much as the so-called maritime nations might want to get tough on the junta in Naypyidaw, its generals have been able to expect a friendlier hearing from their neighbours in Bangkok or Phnom Penh.
The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, is travelling to the region this week to address a meeting of Asean foreign ministers. A lecture about getting tough on Myanmar is unlikely to break the impasse, however, and those in attendance will be paying closer attention to events in Bangkok.
On Thursday, Thailand’s parliament will vote on the country’s next prime minister. Should Pita Limjaroenrat (pictured) of the Move Forward Party succeed in replacing coup leader Prayuth Chan-o-cha, the fresh-faced 42-year-old reformist could bring about a positive step change not just for Thailand but for the wider region too. A democratic Thai government could act as a much-needed bridge between Asean’s two groups and bring a sense of urgency to an organisation facing tough questions about its relevance. But should Limjaroenrat fail to get the support he needs – a clear possibility, given Thailand’s rigged electoral system – the outlook for the region will be very different. Another former army general could end up becoming the country’s 30th prime minister. Meanwhile, Cambodia’s authoritarian leader, Hun Sen, will preside over a sham election later this month in which the main opposition party has been banned. In terms of the balance between Asean’s two subgroups, much rests on Thursday’s vote in Thailand.
James Chambers is Monocle’s Bangkok-based Asia editor. For more opinion, analysis and insight, subscribe to Monocle today.