Opinion / HANNAH LUCINDA SMITH
Speaking terms
Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan is trying to build bridges. Following his narrow re-election in May, he hired a more conventional economic team to please international markets and, last week, stunned analysts by agreeing to Sweden’s Nato membership. As he attempts to bolster Turkey’s standing among its Western allies and rescue its flailing economy, the most problematic members of his circle have been sidelined. In the Caucasus, however, developments are threatening to derail a rapprochement.
Turkey and its neighbour Armenia have been steadily rebuilding ties since 2021, with the initial interest coming from Yerevan. The capital was humiliated and destabilised after Azerbaijan, with the backing of the Turkish military, reclaimed a large part of Nagorno-Karabakh, a disputed region that has been occupied by the Armenian administration since 1992. Despite Azerbaijan’s claim to victory and the bad blood between Turkey and Armenia, the two countries are communicating with each other once again.
Since then, direct flights between Istanbul and Yerevan have been launched and negotiations to open the land border are under way. But tensions are rising again in Nagorno-Karabakh. In December 2022, Azerbaijan blockaded the remaining Armenian-controlled area, home to about 150,000 people who are running short of fresh food, water and energy. Even the ICRC, the sole organisation allowed to access the blockade and evacuate the injured and the sick, was briefly barred from entry last month.
That puts Nikol Pashinyan, the Armenian prime minister, in a difficult position. For Armenians (and Azerbaijanis), Nagorno-Karabakh is an emotive issue. Azerbaijan is Turkey’s closest ally and its security operations are directly supported by Ankara. Though normalising relationships with old enemies may spark fury from Armenians, it is a necessary step to avoid making new ones.
Hannah Lucinda Smith is Monocle’s Istanbul correspondent. For more opinion, analysis and insight, subscribe to Monocle today.