Opinion / Christopher Cermak
Impotent rage
It’s a familiar pattern by now: a brazen act by an autocratic regime is met with cries by the international community that it “can’t be allowed to happen”. Sanctions are then imposed which, seemingly irrespective of their severity, serve to isolate the autocrat but don’t actually lead to any changes of heart.
Belarus’s decision to force a Ryanair flight mid-air between two EU nations to land in Minsk, in order to arrest an opposition journalist and activist, is among the most brazen of such actions to date. And yet the inevitable outrage and warnings of consequences from EU leaders – who discussed the incident at a summit in Brussels yesterday – are unlikely to convince Belarus’s leader, Alexander Lukashenko, to change course. As ever, it helps that Lukashenko has an even more powerful and untouchable autocrat in his court: Vladimir Putin (pictured, on right, with Lukashenko).
Back in the days of the cold war, administrations on both sides of the political aisle in the West appeared more willing to fight fire with fire, if not militarily then through the murky world of intelligence agencies. Since then, such tactics have become more partisan. Just days after the September 11 terrorist attacks, then US vice-president Dick Cheney memorably spoke of the need to operate on the “dark side”. His comments foretold the Bush administration’s aggressive (and arguably illegal) approach to fighting terrorism.
Those in the political centre and on the left have evolved, believing themselves to be above such tactics. And yet this latest sorry tale involving Belarus once again highlights the new reality of diplomacy today: autocrats can act with impunity because they know that the West can’t play by those same dirty rules (the European Commission is not about to send agents armed with Novichok to poison Lukashenko). Yes, it’s far easier said than done but those who are above playing dirty had better come up with an effective method of keeping autocrats in check before it’s too late.