Opinion / Christopher Lord
Drops in the ocean
I’ve just returned from a few days reporting in Hawaii, talking to various branches of the US military stationed on Oahu about the state of play across Asia-Pacific. It’s described in pretty stark terms: the top brass talk of the “tyranny of distance”, which is the challenge of working in such a vast expanse. Simply, how to get personnel and hardware across all that ocean in the event of a flash scenario such as a surprise attack, a collision in the South China Sea or the invasion of an ally.
America has typically forged partnerships with atoll nations and small island chains across the Pacific to achieve this, allowing US units to island-hop and thereby project US power when needed. But China is now increasingly doing the same: in recent weeks, a draft security pact with the Solomon Islands has surfaced that, if inked, would allow China to station units and park ships on the archipelago, which is geographically closer to Hawaii than Beijing.
The revelation has set teeth on edge in the military establishment in Oahu. Kurt Campbell, Joe Biden’s top Asia official, is expected to head to the Solomons for talks this month, looking to pour cold water on the China deal. But it’s come as a wake-up call that US soft power in this part of the world has faltered for too long. While the US military in the Pacific acknowledges that the world is rightly preoccupied with events in Ukraine, there’s a sense in Hawaii that menacing waves are lapping ever closer to their shores. The Solomons is due to soon get an American embassy after years without one but that’s just the tip of the iceberg; the Biden administration's next priority should be delivering a long-promised economic plan to counter Chinese influence across the region. If the White House is serious about competing with China in the Indo-Pacific, it needs to get moving.