Opinion / Hannah Lucinda Smith
Dividing lines
The date is now set: Turkey will hold elections on 14 May. And it’s just what President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (pictured, on far right) wants. Over the coming weeks, his face will appear on thousands of billboards and pressure on his opponents will rise. After 20 years in power, Erdogan effectively controls almost every institutional corner of the state, from its electoral board and central bank to the media. But elections are among the last vestiges of democracy in Turkey and the opposition can still win – so long as it can break free of his spell.
The ongoing economic crisis has tarnished the president’s reputation among business leaders and he has lost the support of the Kurds, who once made up a significant portion of his base. At the age of 68, he struggles to connect with Generation Z; this year six million young people will vote for the first time. It’s a bloc that could swing the result if it can be persuaded to go to the ballot box. Under conditions like these, an opposition victory would be assured in most countries.
Yet polls show that while voters are drifting away from Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party, they remain unconvinced by the opposition. The biggest hurdle is finding a figurehead who can rival his undeniable charisma. Ekrem Imamoglu, Istanbul’s mayor and the most popular opposition figure, was taken out of the running when he was banned from holding political office last month. Meanwhile, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the likely candidate, has struggled to inspire on the campaign trail. Policies are another problem; despite innumerable meetings, the coalition of six opposition parties has yet to come up with any bold ideas.
The president continues to set the narrative and there seems to be little uniting his rivals except a desire to see him go. To win this election, the opposition urgently needs to offer something new – just as Erdogan did a generation ago.
Hannah Lucinda Smith is Monocle’s Istanbul correspondent.