Opinion / Christopher Cermak
Default option
Joe Biden’s mind will inevitably be on problems at home when he meets his fellow G7 leaders in Japan today. The US remains in danger of a debt default, thanks to a spat over whether to raise an artificial limit imposed by Congress. The political crisis has already forced Biden (pictured) to cut short his foreign trip, cancelling a Quad meeting in Australia and what would have been the first-ever visit to Papua New Guinea by a sitting US president. All of this uncertainty is damaging the country’s image abroad and yet the financial markets don’t seem to care.
Markets and politics are funny things. I remember covering the Eurozone’s debt crisis a decade ago: interest rates on borrowing costs for countries such as Greece and Italy surged because investors didn’t believe that politicians could hold the euro currency bloc together. In the end the markets got it wrong: Greece was bailed out and remains part of the euro today. Similarly, the US could default on its debts as soon as 1 June. But instead of focusing on that, investors are busy punishing various developing countries that have overspent since the pandemic began.
Economists will tell you that this is about track record: the US has never defaulted and the country’s politicians have always pulled it back from the brink. In this case, markets believe that there will be a last-minute agreement with Republicans, who demand spending cuts in exchange for a debt-ceiling increase, or Biden will simply declare that the debt limit is unconstitutional and ignore it. Such market complacency isn’t that different from how we view our democracy; many simply refuse to believe that we would be dumb enough to seriously undermine it, even when there’s mounting evidence to the contrary. But everything seems impossible until it actually happens. Even if politicians avoid a debt default this time, the US is inching closer to a scary precipice.
Christopher Cermak is Monocle’s Washington correspondent. For more opinion, analysis and insight, subscribe to Monocle today.