Opinion / James Chambers
Make your move
In countries with a history of coalition governments, the role of kingmaker is a storied one. There are always parties that win enough seats to sway the outcome but not enough to take the crown. In Thailand that honour has fallen unexpectedly to Pheu Thai – and it could end up being its undoing. The party of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra (pictured) went into the election earlier this month buoyed by predictions of a landslide win. But it emerged in second place, behind upstart rival Move Forward.
This shock result presented a chastened Pheu Thai with two unappealing options: support Move Forward’s coalition with eight other parties and help their political heirs ultimately replace them, or side with coup leaders and their cronies, and go down in history as the party that drowned Thailand’s democratic revival at birth. As one party insider told me, it could be the beginning of the end for Pheu Thai, though the party and its wily operators are not going to go quietly. Thaksin came out this week to deny rumours that Pheu Thai is plotting to form a rival coalition but the political manoeuvring is already being played out in the open.
A rift has emerged between Move Forward and Pheu Thai about who gets to fill the post of speaker in the house of representatives. Much like in the US, the speaker gets to set the legislative agenda so Move Forward needs control of the position to table its most radical reforms, such as changing Thailand’s lèse-majesté law, which had been left out of the coalition agreement to appease the other signatories. If brinkmanship and scheming like this were to bring down the coalition from within, then Pheu Thai would surely be blamed by voters for whatever comes next. For Pheu Thai to have a future, it must get behind Move Forward and use this defeat to carry out much-needed reforms of its own.
James Chambers is Monocle’s Asia editor, based in Bangkok. For more opinion, analysis and insight, subscribe to the magazine today.