Opinion / Blake Evans-Pritchard
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There can be no denying that Spain’s regional and municipal elections were bad news for the ruling Socialist party – even worse, in fact, than the polls had predicted. But the country’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez (pictured, on poster), has a plan. Rather than allow the right-wing People’s party (PP) to take control of the unfolding narrative and let it spend the next six months crowing about its victory, Sánchez has chosen to bring the general election forward to 23 July.
It’s a risky move. Sánchez is resting all of his hopes on the electorate ignoring the PP hype at the very moment when the opposition party is the strongest it has been in more than 12 years. But the calculated gamble might just pay off. In terms of the absolute share of the popular vote, Sánchez hasn’t actually done all that badly. The PP won 31.5 per cent of the total voter share compared to the Socialists’ 28.1 per cent. This represents only a 1.3 percentage-point drop on Sánchez’s performance in the 2019 national election but an 8.9 per cent jump for the PP. The PP was able to tap into the centrist vote, following the demise of the Ciudadanos party.
“I wouldn’t say that this is necessarily great for Sánchez,” Ignacio Jurado, a political science lecturer at Carlos III University in Madrid, tells The Monocle Minute. “But he has clearly taken the view that holding the election in July will be a lot less risky than waiting until December.” Sánchez’s brash move speaks volumes about his leadership and what to expect if he stays in power. He knows that winning the next election will require both decisive action and the willingness to take risks.
Blake Evans-Pritchard is a Barcelona-based journalist covering Spanish politics and culture. For more opinion, analysis and insight, subscribe to Monocle today.