Opinion / James Chambers
Missing link
China’s leaders often wonder why they receive negative coverage in Western media. Their actions are one important reason. Another is that they don’t communicate very well. While the White House is a fairly open book, the goings-on in Beijing’s Zhongnanhai leadership compound are a mystery to outsiders. Little is known about what Xi Jinping actually thinks and why he behaves in the way that he does. As a result, foreign correspondents fill in the blanks as best they can, coming up with explanations that often assume the worst.
The Chinese president’s absence from the forthcoming G20 summit in India is a case in point. It has been reported as a snub to a regional rival by a reclusive leader who hates leaving home but these assumptions go against what we know about Xi based on his past behaviour. Before the coronavirus pandemic, he amassed plenty of stamps on his passport and made a point of attending G20 summits. It makes little sense to interpret this year’s no-show as a sign of soured relations with India; after all, Xi was recently in South Africa with his Indian counterpart, Narendra Modi, to announce that six new members will join the Brics bloc – currently comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – in 2024.
The most likely explanation for Xi’s absence is something internal. A health issue, perhaps, or, as Katsuji Nakazawa reports for Nikkei Asia, a political disturbance during this year’s Beidaihe summer summit. Xi would certainly not miss the G20 unless it was something serious. Or would he? We don’t know and that’s the problem. We just assume that we know a man who has only extremely rarely been interviewed as president by foreign journalists. While we wait in vain for a ground-breaking exclusive that finally gives us more insight into his thinking, our responsibility is to acknowledge the limited nature of our assumptions. If we don’t, they will be repeated until they become received wisdom with potentially dangerous consequences. Xi’s new aversion to overseas travel might not cause another world war but the opinion of a few US military generals that Beijing plans to force unification with Taiwan by 2027 could suggest otherwise.
James Chambers is Monocle’s Asia editor. For more opinion, analysis and insight, subscribe to Monocle today.