The Agenda

Gorana Grgic, our new security correspondent, on what 2025 might bring and how to prepare for the unforeseen.

There has been no shortage of predictions about the year ahead in geopolitics. But while uncertainty remains the defining trait of international affairs, crystal balls must give way to sober analysis. Understanding how complex international challenges affect us as individuals and nation states is crucial, and there are three key characteristics of today’s international system we must focus on.

First, there will be no return to a rules-based status quo ante. We are firmly in an era of great power competition, with the US and China at its core. State relations are increasingly spilling into conflict – kinetic, cyber, economic, or the so-called “grey zone” spanning everything from disinformation to acts of sabotage. Second, the global landscape is now split into three camps: the “global” West (the US and its Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific allies); the revisionist powers (the “Crink” bloc of China, Russia, Iran and North Korea); and global swing states that navigate between these two with varying affinities. The “bloc-iness” of the world will determine the way in which we travel, trade and interact in different domains. And third, the 2024 “year of elections” proved that populism remains an effective electoral strategy, often outpacing establishment messaging. This trend will persist for as long as trust in governing institutions is low and frustration with political leaders remains high. While the coming year offers comparatively fewer electoral races, Germany’s federal elections on 23 February are poised to offer a test of populist resurgence that will reverberate well beyond its borders.

The three dynamics mentioned above will endure despite any unforeseen developments, such as the surprises of last year – from Biden’s election withdrawal and the two attempts on Trump’s life to the fall of Syria’s Bashar al- Assad and South Korea’s most serious constitutional crisis since democratic consolidation. Trump’s return as the 47th US president is the most consequential development for international security in 2025. Hopes of reviving the rules-based order under US leadership, as it stood for the past 80 years, ended on 6 November 2024. Granted, pre-2016 US foreign policy wasn’t always a paragon of multilateral ideals, but Trump’s unilateral, transactional approach now signals its breakdown, as his policies, often contradictory, begin to shape crises worldwide.

Despite Trump’s promises to end the war in Ukraine, deep divisions between Kyiv and Moscow make a quick and lasting resolution unlikely. In the Middle East, many more questions loom. Will Iran respond to declining influence with concessions or accelerated nuclear ambitions? How will Israel shape its internal affairs and neighbourhood? And can Syria unite post-Assad? The answers to these questions will define regional stability in the short to medium-term. Moving further east, most security analysts will be looking towards Taiwan, where Trump’s policies offer mixed signals: a pledge to intensify competition with China contrasts with his viewing Taiwan as a threat to US economic interests in semiconductor production. Meanwhile, China’s aggression in the South China Sea raises questions about the new US administration’s approach to allies such as the Philippines.

Geopolitical challenges are almost certain to grow with rising protectionism. Trump’s intention to slap tariffs on Chinese goods (along with those on US allies and partners) risks countermeasures that will destabilise global trade and threaten economic stability. These challenges are only a segment of the broader international security landscape. Equally pressing are the far-reaching effects of climate change, terrorist threats and global health crises. All are compounded by the effect of artificial intelligence and rapid technological advancements, reshaping how states govern, co-operate and compete. Of course, these factors are not tied to one calendar year; they continue to influence the stability of societies. And 2025 will be no exception.

Only by staying informed, anticipating change and finding ways to adapt and respond can we navigate the uncertainties ahead and hopefully contribute to shaping a more secure future. I look forward to doing my part and sharing key insights with you as monocle’s new security correspondent. — L

Gorana Grgic is Monocle’s security correspondent and a senior researcher with the Swiss and Euro-​Atlantic Security Team at ETH Zürich’s Center for Security Studies.