Opinion / Fiona Wilson
False friends
There’s a stubbornly persistent view in some circles that Republican US presidents are easier for Japan to get along with: namely because they’re thought more likely to be tough on China. As the past four years have shown, the reality is somewhat different. Shinzō Abe and Donald Trump’s much vaunted bromance was more style than substance: Trump pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership on his first day in office, even though Japan had spent years negotiating the deal. Trump then tried to strong-arm Japan into paying a hugely increased amount to host US troops on its soil.
Under Trump, the US pursued an isolationist, America-first attitude to trade. Instead of investing in alliances, Trump appeared to view relationships from a transactional point of view and was less than complimentary when it suited his agenda. Asia will have to wait to see exactly where Biden’s foreign policy will take him but we do know that old hand Kurt Campbell, the top US diplomat in Asia under Barack Obama, will be Biden’s senior official for Asia policy. There is no sign yet that Biden will be softer on China, although it’s likely that he’ll favour a broader coalition of regional allies over Trump’s unilateral trade war and tariff approach.
After four years of diplomatic instability and unpredictability, Japan will be relieved to return to the mundane world of multilateralism and a US that shows leadership on global challenges from the pandemic to climate change. In his 15-minute post-election phone call with Japanese prime minister Yoshihide Suga, Biden confirmed – as Obama and Trump did before him – that the US would defend Japan if the disputed Senkaku Islands (also claimed by China) came under attack, an important commitment from Japan’s point of view. For all Trump’s tough talk and flashy summits, the US has emerged from recent years as a weaker player in Asia; its friends will hope for a change under Biden.